Global crude departures remain high, but oversupply fears unmaterialised

Global crude and condensate departures remained high in the first half of August, reaching approximately 41 million barrels per day, Vortexa said in an update. 

The figure is 2% higher than the seasonal average from 2016-2024 and surpasses both 2023 and 2024 levels.

“Nevertheless, despite fears that the swift unwinding of production cuts from the eight core OPEC+ members, and subsequent increased exports mainly from Saudi Arabia and the UAE could push crude markets into oversupply, this has not concretely materialised as of yet,” Mark Toth, analyst at Vortexa said in the report.

Exports from the Wider Pacific Basin for the first half of August are approximately 7% lower than the seasonal average.

Late summer strength, when compared to previous years, is primarily attributed to the significant increase in barrels loaded from South America. 

This region’s exports during the first 15 days of August were 9% higher than the seasonal peak observed between 2016 and 2024, data from the ship tracking agency showed. 

Additionally, robust exports from the broader Atlantic basin have contributed to this trend.

Middle East exports

Middle East Gulf exports for the first half of August have decreased by over 860,000 barrels per day (bpd) month-over-month, reaching approximately 16 million bpd. 

This is 8% below the seasonal average. Based on the usual front-loading of Middle Eastern cargoes, total August exports are expected to be slightly lower than 2023 and 2024 levels.

Ongoing efforts to compensate for past overproduction by some members and increased domestic consumption have helped to curb the accumulation of onshore inventories within the broader OPEC+ group. 

As a result, onshore crude stocks are currently 4% below the seasonal average, according to the Vortexa Global Inventory Report as of August 15.

Middle Eastern crude oil shipments to India have seen a modest increase in early August, signalling a supportive trend for the region’s oil producers. 

Departures destined for India in the first half of August were up by 3% compared to 2024 and by 5% compared to 2023, indicating sustained demand, according to the data.

Toth said:

However, as domestic demand decreases within OPEC+ as the summer season comes to an end, with further production increases in September, it is questionable whether the current level of price stability will persist.

Backwardation in the Dubai market, defined as the spread between prompt-month and third-month forward contracts, has decreased. 

On August 15, it was $2.37 per barrel, down from nearly $3 a barrel at the beginning of the month.

Despite this narrowing, it remains higher than the first half of 2025 average of $2.104 a barrel, according to Argus.

South America and Atlantic Basin exports

In the first half of August, South American crude/condensate exports saw a month-over-month decrease of approximately 90,000 bpd. 

Despite this, exports remained 9% higher than the seasonal peak for August. This growth is primarily driven by Brazil and Guyana, both of which are increasing their production, according to Vortexa.

During the first half of August, West African exports have risen by approximately 230,000 bpd month-over-month, though they remain below 2024 levels and the seasonal average. 

Similarly, US exports are recovering from a 500,000 bpd month-over-month decline between June and July. 

Further increases in heavy crude supply to the US are anticipated with the resumption of Venezuelan crude flow following the reinstatement of Chevron’s license, as well as increased Canadian flows after wildfire disruptions and the summer maintenance season, Vortexa data showed.

Price impact

While overall Pacific basin exports have decreased by approximately 1.4 million bpd month-over-month during the first 15 days, remaining below the seasonal average, Atlantic basin exports have risen by over 290,000 bpd month-over-month, surpassing the seasonal average by 8%.

“Atlantic basin exports are likely to come off over the full month based on preliminary data, but increased supply from Brazil and Guyana are expected to keep them at seasonally high levels for the month of August 2025,” Toth said.

Increased exports from the Atlantic basin, combined with an anticipated seasonal decrease in European demand for crude imports and the onset of autumn refinery maintenance, have started to exert downward pressure on Atlantic basin crude prices. 

This trend is evidenced by the significant drop in the Brent-Dubai EFS, which fell sharply from its late June peak of $3.70 a barrel to $0.23 per barrel on August 18, Argus data showed.

Benchmark crude prices, which spiked in late July, have since fallen and appear to be under increasing pressure.

Toth added:

This is likely to provide impetus to increased exports from the Atlantic Basin towards the East of Suez markets driven by price action.

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