Analyst estimates predict revenue and EPS dip for Chevron’s critical Q4 result

Oil giant Chevron Corporation, the only US company currently producing oil in Venezuela, is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on Friday. 

Its operations in Venezuela are expected to be a key point of discussion, offering one of the first glimpses into the opportunity within the country for the sector.

With the stock recently hitting a 52-week high of $172.50, this report is critically timed. 

Following a major acquisition and in a challenging market, investors are closely evaluating whether the company’s core performance can justify its current, elevated valuation.

Major oil producers are operating in a complex trading environment characterised by a well-supplied crude market and fluctuating commodity prices. 

Global demand increases are predominantly driven by non-OECD nations. 

A key strategic development in this context is Chevron’s acquisition of Hess Corporation, a move that significantly boosts Chevron’s presence, particularly in vital production areas such as Guyana.

The upcoming earnings call on Friday is expected to deliver vital information concerning the timeline for achieving synergies from the integration, as well as updates on the advancement of these promising assets.

Estimates for Chevron

According to Benzinga Pro data, analysts project Chevron’s fourth-quarter revenue to be $48.57 billion, which represents a decrease from the $52.23 billion reported in the same quarter last year.

While the company has beaten analyst revenue estimates in six of the last 10 quarters, it has missed expectations in the most recent three consecutive quarters.

Chevron is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) to $1.45, according to analysts. This is a decrease from the $2.06 EPS reported in the same quarter last year.

The company has surpassed analyst EPS expectations in two consecutive quarters. Looking at the broader trend, it has beaten EPS estimates in five of the last ten quarters.

A Barron report said Chevron is expected to report EPS of $1.42 for its fourth quarter, a decline from the $2.06 EPS recorded in the same period a year earlier.

Despite a year-end slump in oil prices for 2025 that negatively impacted results, the market has seen a rebound, with prices climbing about 10% since the beginning of the year. 

This recovery is reflected in Chevron’s stock, which has risen 12% year-to-date.

Global expansion

While the company has experienced rapid expansion in the US, particularly in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where it yields approximately 1 million barrels per day, this domestic growth is now decelerating. 

Consequently, investor attention is increasingly moving abroad, focusing on the company’s quicker growth in locations such as Kazakhstan, Guyana, and the potential for expansion in Venezuela.

In addition to its activities in Guyana, Chevron’s renewed operations in Venezuela are significant. 

Operating under a license from the US government, the company has ramped up its shipments of crude oil to America. 

This heightened activity is increasingly vital for international oil distribution and US energy security.

Consequently, the financial implications of these Venezuelan operations will be a key focus when the latest results are analysed.

Joint ventures with Chevron currently account for approximately 240,000 barrels per day, or about a quarter of Venezuela’s total oil production, according to certain estimates. 

Chevron has indicated a potential to increase this production by 50% over the next 18 to 24 months, and is open to making larger, new investments, provided the right conditions are met.

“We will need to see significant investment in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, following years of neglect,” ING Group analysts said in a report earlier this month. 

And in order for this investment to materialise, we will need to see foreign oil companies agree to invest in the domestic industry.

Favourable environment

Chevron is arguably best positioned to increase oil production in Venezuela due to its long history in the country. 

However, oil companies are currently hesitant to invest and are proceeding cautiously because the ongoing political uncertainty creates significant legal risks.

Chevron is the only US oil company operating in Venezuela, having received a special licence from the US government to continue to operate despite sanctions.

Chevron’s stock is also appealing to analysts because its free cash flow is projected to increase more significantly than its rivals in 2026. 

This anticipated rise is due to long-term capital investments in projects, particularly in Kazakhstan, beginning to yield returns.

A ‘Buy’ rating and a $188 price target have been assigned to the stock by Bank of America, partly due to this reason.

The stock has recently been trading at approximately $172.

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